As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to wreak havoc on countries around the world, businesses and organizations are trying to find ways to navigate the crisis and prepare for what comes next.

For healthcare leaders, the challenges are particularly acute as they must manage both the public health response and the financial implications of the pandemic.

One tool that healthcare leaders can use to guide their decision-making during this uncertain time is a scenario planning guide. A scenario planning guide helps leaders think through different possible outcomes and develop strategies to address each one.

Here are some key considerations that healthcare leaders should keep in mind as they develop a COVID-19 scenario planning guide.

Consider different scenarios

One of the key benefits of scenario planning is that it helps leaders prepare for a range of different outcomes. In the case of COVID-19, healthcare leaders may need to consider scenarios such as a resurgence of the virus, a prolonged period of social distancing, or a vaccine becoming widely available.

When developing a scenario planning guide, leaders should start by outlining the key variables that are likely to impact their organization. These variables might include things like the spread of the virus, the availability of personal protective equipment (PPE), and the status of the economy.

Once the variables have been identified, leaders can develop scenarios that consider different combinations of these variables. For example, a scenario where the virus continues to spread but PPE is readily available might require a different response than a scenario where the virus is contained but PPE is scarce.

Focus on the highest priority areas

While it's important to consider a range of different scenarios, healthcare leaders should also be mindful of their organization's highest priority areas. These might include things like maintaining patient safety, protecting staff, and ensuring financial stability.

By prioritizing these areas, leaders can ensure that they are devoting their resources to the most critical needs. For example, if financial stability is a top priority, leaders might develop scenarios that focus on revenue generation and cost containment.

Involve key stakeholders

Scenario planning should be a collaborative process that involves key stakeholders from across the organization. This might include clinical staff, administrators, and financial analysts.

By involving a diverse group of stakeholders, leaders can ensure that they are considering a wide range of perspectives and identifying potential blind spots. This can also help build buy-in for the scenario planning process and ensure that everyone is aligned around the organization's priorities.

Continuously monitor and adjust

Finally, it's important to recognize that scenario planning is an ongoing process. As the situation with COVID-19 evolves, healthcare leaders will need to continuously monitor their assumptions and adjust their plans accordingly.

This might mean revisiting the scenarios that were developed initially and refining them based on new information. It could also mean identifying new scenarios that were not initially considered.

In addition to scenario planning, healthcare leaders should also be focused on building flexibility and resilience into their organizations. This might mean developing contingency plans for staffing shortages or supply chain disruptions, or investing in technology that can support remote work and telemedicine.